Monsoon in its last leg over parts of North India has lashed some pockets with heavy to very heavy rains. Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh and parts of Haryana received incessant heavy rains last night and the showers continue today as well. Chief amount of rainfall in the past 24hr being : Palam-102mm, Aligarh- 126mm, Meerut- 67mm, Gurgaon-107mm, Guna-118mm and Karnal-76mm. The spread, intensity and duration of the spell was nearly unmatched during this season.
Earlier southwest monsoon commenced withdrawal from extreme West Rajasthan and miniscule portion of Kutch in Gujarat on 20thSep. Thereafter, the withdrawal line has stayed stationary, defying the normal practice. After the start of withdrawal, monsoon generally recedes from Delhi in about a week’s time. As it looks, may not be the case this time. The remnant of a low pressure area as cyclonic circulation, presently lying over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and neighboring parts of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi is keeping the monsoon active over these parts.
Though, the low pressure area has weakened but the cyclonic circulation will persist for another 48hr over the region, before drifting eastward. Weather system will follow a curved track and therefore move very slowly over the next 2-3days. Heavy rains are likely over Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttrakhand, Haryana, North Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh till 25thSeptember. Hazardous weather conditions will impact Uttrakhand and foothills of West Uttar Pradesh on 25thSep. Rain intensity and spread will reduce and also shift eastward, albeit gradually from 26thonward.
Northwest India had accumulated rain deficit of about 8% till 2nd week of September. Courtesy, twist in the weather conditions due to interaction of 2 back to back monsoon systems with the western disturbance, the shortfall has been shrinking. Likely to reach zero-zero anytime soon. Another low pressure area or monsoon circulation is expected to form on 26th Sep over Bay of Bengal and coastal parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. However, this will not travel up to Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh and stop short of Central Madhya Pradesh. Subsequently, this will pave way for further withdrawal from Northwest India during beginning of October.