The rainfall figure of 91% for the country as a whole is worrisome as the inbuilt error of -4% increases the chance of drought in the country to 60%.
The regional distribution is even more alarming, with 80% chances of drought in Northwest India, 75% in Central India and 50% over South India. East and North East India will have the least fluctuation with normal rainfall through the JAS (July, August and September) period.
Majority of subdivisions of North West India (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana), West central India (East MP, West MP, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka, Chhattisgarh Telangana) and South India (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rayalaseema) will observe weak rain during the whole season. Some places may also witness moderate to severe drought conditions.
Notably, the cumulative deficit may narrow down to some extent in July, August and September if there is good rain in East India and Northeast India, which is likely to be the case. However, the regional deficit will still remain large and chances of drought will be high.
Meanwhile, the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is now likely to be 93% of its LPA during July, a marginal shift from 94% earlier. And for August and September the rainfall remains at 98% of the LPA. Compared to other months, August will receive maximum amount of rain.
June has already been very gloomy for the country in terms of Monsoon rain as the cumulative deficit for the month stands at 43%. However, July has started off on a decent note with rain being observed in some areas particularly Mumbai, Delhi-NCR and West Bengal. The NLM has also progressed to cover Veraval, Surat, Nasik, Wasim, Damoh, Lucknow, Aligarh and Bikaner.
To download our presentation on Monsoon forecast for 2014, click here. You can also have a look at our press release.