According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the very vital Monsoon season is expected to make an early onset in India. The Southwest Monsoon is likely to strike Kerala on the 28th of May against its usual onset date of 1st June. Simultaneously it will reach parts of Northeast India on the same day.
On the other hand, Monsoon’s current movement over the Arabian Sea is likely to progress and is expected to reach the commercial capital Mumbai between 7th and 8th June, which is again about two days earlier than its normal date of 10th June. The eastern branch seems to be staggering during this period.
Between 15th and 18th June another branch of the Monsoon from the Arabian Sea is likely to cover entire western coast and extend further to cover parts of Saurashtra in Gujarat. By this time, the Bay of Bengal branch is going to cover entire Northeast India and parts of West Bengal including Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
The Southwest Monsoon will make a rapid progression in North India and reach Delhi between 22nd and 24th June, about 5-6 days earlier than its usual date of 29th June.
It is to be noted that onset of Monsoon in any region has hardly got any bearing on its further performance in terms of amount of rainfall.
Monsoon in India is an eagerly awaited event, especially by the farmers who are highly dependent on Monsoon rain for their crop productivity. Good Monsoon results in good yield which in turn leads to high GDP and flourishing economy.
Southwest Monsoon accounts for 80% of the annual mean rainfall. Thus there is no doubt that Monsoon predictions are very important.
Earlier in April, Skymet Meteorology Division in India had released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
