Axis of monsoon trough is moving towards foothills of Himalayas. Westerly dry winds have already commenced over Delhi and parts of Haryana. As of now monsoon trough is in transition phase. By August 11 it will be over foothills. This condition is known as break monsoon. Humid easterly winds are replaced by dry and warm westerly winds. Rain stops and temperatures start increasing. During this break monsoon, weather of northwest India and adjoining parts of Central India will go dry.
Eastern and of monsoon trough is also inching closer to foothills but, a cyclonic circulation over Eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar will continue to give good rain over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar Jharkhand and West Bengal. Therefore, technically break monsoon will be north west and adjoining Central part of the country.
After August 15 or 16, axis of monsoon trough will once again start travelling South leading to commencement of rain over in northern plains as well as parts of Central India. During break monsoon period rain will be heavy over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, foothills of Uttar Pradesh, and adjoining northern parts of Punjab and Haryana.
It is usual for monsoon to go for a break once or twice during entire monsoon period. Second half of August seems to be much better in terms of rainfall for northern plains. August is the rainiest month for North India including Delhi NCR. We think second half of August may compensate for dry spell in first half.
