Mumbai has been experiencing heavy rains since yesterday. The base observatory at Santacruz has recorded 50mm and Colaba measured double this amount 101mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours, till 8.30 a.m. Moderate to heavy showers are continuing. Rainy days are ahead for Mumbai. The intensity and spread may increase further and soak weather conditions will prevail during this week. Decent rains will spill over to the next week, as well.
Mumbai had a shortfall of about 30% rainfall in June. July is the rainiest month with a normal 840.7mm of rainfall. The city has already crossed this mark and is comfortably on its way to registering a four-digit mark of 1000mm, today. The month of July will not only compensate for the shortfall of June, but Mumbai will end up having surplus rainfall for the first half of the season.
The off-shore trough is very active all along the Western Ghats from Kerala to South Coastal Gujarat, covering the Konkan region including Mumbai. The remnant of the earlier low-pressure area over the Madhya Pradesh region filled up and has merged with the east-west shear line running across 20°N. A fresh low-pressure area is likely to form over northwest Bay of Bengal, tomorrow. As a precursor to the low pressure, an active cyclonic circulation is marked over the same area. This is the feature likely to drive the monsoon current over Mumbai, from the Arabian Sea, for the next 5-to 6 days.
Mumbai will have moderate to heavy rains between 18th and 21st July. Presently, a heavy rainfall belt is lying over the South Konkan region covering the Sindhudurg-Konkan region. This will move northward and cross over Mumbai on the 20th and 21st July. These are the days of some extreme rainfall events for Mumbai. Intermittent moderate to heavy rains will continue today, as well. Keep in mind the high tide timings of around 9 p.m. tonight. The city shore can expect a wave surge of over 10 feet around the high tide time. This will have the reverse flow of water compounding the situation further in the flooded coastal low-lying areas.
The low pressure of the Bay of Bengal will ease out by the 21st – 22nd of July. However, moderate rainfall will continue over the city and suburbs, for the subsequent 4-5 days, till 25-26 July. The rains are not going to cease in toto, even thereafter. The capital city looks to be heading for a massive record monthly total during July.
Image Credit: StaticIndia.com
