Although far delayed, but good rains are likely for the entire state of Uttar Pradesh in the coming days. The state may not get a deluge but will break the jinx of prolonged dry spell. Rains will commence from East Uttar Pradesh to start with and cover the entire state during fag end of August and start of September.
The state has received light to moderate rains in the past 24hr. Monsoon trough is running well south of its normal position and rather far away from the Indo Gangetic plains. Not much weather activity is expected over the next 3 days. However, relief showers are likely between 27thAug and 02nd Sep 2022.
Uttar Pradesh has been the rain starved state this season. East and West Uttar Pradesh reel with big shortfall of 47% and 41% respectively, till date. Perpetual rain deficit over the state has stressed the farmers of the rice growing bowl of the country. Skewed distribution of rainfall has upset the entire kharif cycle and resulted irreparable damage in few districts of the state.
A fresh cyclonic circulation has developed over North Bay of Bengal. After meandering over eastern parts for the next 3 days, the weather system will move westward along the borderline between Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. This will shift the monsoon trough along the plains of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar with an embedded circulation, transiting from East Madhya Pradesh to North Madhya Pradesh and taking a recourse along Indo Gangetic plains.
Rains are likely to commence from 27th Aug over East Uttar Pradesh and cover the rest parts subsequently. Rainy spell is expected between 27th Aug and 02ND Sep. Spread and intensity of the monsoon bursts will be higher between 30thAug and 01st Sep, than on other days. The rainfall belt will probably shift along the foothills after 02nd Sep.