As predicted by Skymet, the Southwest Monsoon arrived over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Saturday, May 16, which is 4 days prior to the onset date of May 20. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is currently passing through 5°N and 86°E, 10°N and 90°E, Long Island and 15°N and 98°E.
Onset over Kerala
The conditions for the advancement of the NLM are favourable over some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, through Sri Lanka. It will take about 8 to 10 days from the current position for the Monsoon to strike Kerala. This means that the onset will be 3 to 4 days earlier than the official date of June 1, which corroborates Skymet’s prediction made in its Monsoon foreshadow 2015.
Typhoons in the West Pacific and their Impact
Various conditions like cyclonic circulations, low pressure area and depression assist in the advancement of the Monsoon. Also, this is the season for typhoons in the South China Sea and West Pacific. Any strong system in the Pacific or the South China Sea inhibits the formation of cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal.
However, these systems are responsible for governing the air flow across the India Ocean, Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, which in turn intensifies the Monsoon surge.
Currently, typhoon Dolphin is moving across West Pacific, taking a recurve and moving away from mainland Japan, unlike Noul which had brushed against the mainland of Philippines and Japan.
Dolphin has played a role in pulling the current and assisting in the advancement of Monsoon. The typhoon is now moving away in higher latitudes due to which widespread thundershowers are expected over Myanmar, Bangladesh and Northeast India, particularly over the coastal parts for next 3-4 days. Isolated places in these areas are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rain.
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