Monsoon Advancement Likely, Big Leap Only Around Weekend

Monsoon has almost stalled for over one week. The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) is stuck at Ratnagiri along the West Coast and  Sriniketan (West Bengal), Dumka (Jharkhand) and Araria (Bihar) on the eastern side for over one week.  States of Telangana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have remained untouched so far.  As per normal, the monsoon should have reached  entire Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh  and partly advanced to Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand.  Conditions are becoming  favourable for incremental progress , albeit on the eastern end marginal advancement over Peninsular India over the next 48hr.  A big leap is likely to follow between 25^th and 27^thJune.

Monsoon rainfall deficit had earlier mounted to 55% on 13^thJune.  Courtesy cyclone Biparjoy and its remnant low pressure, heavy rains lashed Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh between 14^th and 20^thJune, reducing the deficit margin to 33%. Despite some recovery, the rainfall distribution pattern is highly skewed. States of southern and central India, where monsoon arrives early are reeling with shortfall of 60% to 90%. The western states  like Gujarat and Rajasthan have recorded deluge and have surpassed their monthly quota of June  and few days of July as well.  Lopsided distribution has increased worries of the farmers, who remain indecisive over the timelines for sowing and the type and cycle of crop.

There is a hope and silver lining to the otherwise dismal picture so far, coming up shortly. Courtesy, likely monsoon system emerging over northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal parts of Odisha on 24^th/25^thJune and later traversing across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, monsoon revival and advancement as well is expected over large parts of the country. Rains may even reach as far as Gujarat and Rajasthan. Most importantly, Konkan region will get activated and Mumbai is likely to be lashed with typical Mumbai downpour between 26^th and 29^thJune. National capital Delhi also will be within reach of monsoon rains during this wet spell.