Courtesy of cyclone Biparjoy, the monsoon advancement along the West Coast has been rather quick and fast. After the onset over Kerala on 08th June, the monsoon westerly stream has rapidly travelled along the coast to go past Goa and reach Ratnagiri on 11th June. Cyclone Biparjoy is moving northward very slowly and is likely to change course northeastward after 24hrs. Biparjoy will make landfall on 15th June near the Indo-Pak border. The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) will also move along with the storm getting dragged to cover the Konkan region and even ingress South Gujarat in the next 2-3 days.
Monsson continues to struggle over interior parts of Peninsular India. Though the northern limit has covered Kerala, most parts of Tamil Nadu, Coastal Karnataka and Goa, the current remains meek and mild over these parts. Seasonal rains have incurred a deficiency of over 50% between 01st and 12th June 2023. While the southwesterly stream may be taking the monsoon to Mumbai anytime now, penetration to the lee side of the Western Ghats and further will remain slow.
Notwithstanding mild and sparse rains over Peninsular India, Mumbai will witness 1st monsoon showers very soon. A typical monsoon burst for Mumbai will have to wait till cyclone Biparjoy dies down. Fresh pulse will be needed from the Bay of Bengal to accentuate Mumbai rains.
Mumbai receives 526mm of rainfall in June. It has recorded a mere 4mm so far, and that too, in the past 24 hours. More showers are likely over the next 3 days. The wet spell will help ease the temperatures to 33-34°C from the current trend of > 38°C over the last 2 days.