The four-month-long monsoon season finished with a decent performance recording 108% rainfall of long period average (LPA). The season also had the distinction of having normal to excess rainfall over 85% of the total area of the country. Yes, there were pockets of below-normal rainfall which include Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, J & K, Ladakh and Punjab. The largest deficiency was observed over Arunachal Pradesh in Northeast India (-28%) and a similar margin over Punjab (-28%) in the northern plains.
There were a few highlights of this monsoon season. Despite a sluggish and disappointing start in June with a monthly deficit of 11% rainfall, the season caught up rather well and beyond the expectations of most weather agencies. Both the core monsoon months of July and August performed extremely well. Actually, August was the best performer with an overall rainfall of 115% of LPA. This month, which invariably encounters ‘break-in-monsoon’ went scot-free and the complete season did not observe a typical break.
All the weather agencies expected La Nina conditions and positive IOD, during the season. Factually, the forecast of a better monsoon was riding on the back of these two parameters, which actually did not happen. This only proves that monsoon is a very powerful heat engine which can drive the current on its own. This also goes on to show that the internal energy of the monsoon is phenomenal. Also, the monsoon dynamics remain far from completely understood and much needs to be done to solve the monsoon puzzle.
The best thing during this monsoon was that the core monsoon rainfed zone of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat rained adequately and at times excessively, during the core monsoon months of July and August. The frequency, spread and intensity of the wet spells were just ideal for the requirements of the farming community. Another inexplicable factor remains excess rains over the semi-arid pockets of Rajasthan. More so, the driest pocket of West Rajasthan witnessed a surplus of over 70% rainfall and even East Rajasthan recorded a huge excess of over 45% rainfall. At the same time, the agriculture bowl of the northern plains, the state of Punjab is battling with a large shortfall of 28% rainfall.
Despite plenty of research and sincere efforts of the scientific community, the business of monsoon forecasts continues to be a challenge. Like many other vagaries of weather, decoding of monsoon will remain an ongoing process. The monsoon is capable of throwing up a surprise, anytime, anywhere. After all, it has a reputation to maintain with.
Image Courtesy: India Today
