After making a mild start, Monsoon 2022 looks to be heading for splendid show. Even, in the last leg, the stream is delivering decent showers over many parts of the country. The central and western parts have clinched the limelight of the season. As it happens in every good season, some pockets get treated differently.
Eastern state of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh bore the brunt of curse and perpetually remained far from the target, month after month. State of Uttar Pradesh has suffered the largest seasonal deficit of over 45% rainfall, followed by Bihar at 35%. These 2 states are expected to have some consolatory rainfall this week. But, this will be too late and too less to compensate the shortfall.
Core monsoon months delivered quite well this season. The rainiest month July performed exceptionally good and wound up with a record surplus of 17% rainfall and remained unmatched since 2005. Month of August also was decent enough with rainfall of 103% of long period average. Statistical record testify minimal failure of monsoon when the core months get aligned and sway the season. Monsoon 2022 had earlier touched 110% of LPA during mid August.
Monsoon had started on a milder note and the opening month recorded shortfall of 8%. However, this was subsumed by the core monsoon months and compensated adequately with season scoring ‘above normal’ throughout July and August. Courtesy, trail of monsoon systems in July and August, the central and western states, including the drought prone pockets of Gujarat and Maharashtra, witnessed excess rainfall staggered well over the season.
Month of September maintained track record of July and August. Underpower performance of 1st ten days of the month has now been overtaken. Month, by itself is surplus with 10% rainfall till 1st fortnight of September. There are decent showers lined up in the remaining days, also covering the deficit pockets of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal.
Earlier, there was a hat trick of goon monsoon, with 2019 & 2020 scoring ‘above normal’ and 2021 also on mark with nearly perfect ‘normal’. Season 2022 is also heading for a pole finish of ‘above normal’. As of 15thSep2022, the seasonal rainfall stands at 106% of LPA. The left over days of September are expected to catch up with the normal rainfall comfortably. In all probabilities, the season will end on ‘above normal’ note. This will go on record to be ‘rare’, 4th consecutive good monsoon and 3 of these finishing with above normal status.