As on July 19, all India rain deficit stands at -6%. Central India Northwest India as well as east and northeast India are rain deficient by 10%, 15% and 12%. South Peninsula is the only region which is surplus by 20%.
Except Kerala and Lakshadweep all the Meteorological divisions in South Peninsula are either large surplus, surplus or normal. Rayalaseema is large surplus by 121% followed by Tamil Nadu and Puducherry at 79%.
West Coast of the country particularly coastal Karnataka and Kerala have been receiving on and off moderate to heavy showers. However, as the average rainfall of these regions are very high, thus, in spite of good rain Kerala is deficient by 29% and coastal Karnataka by 8%.
Now, Monsoon will remain subdued over south India during next one week. The offshore trough is extending from Maharashtra to Karnataka cost. Rain activities will continue over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala. However, the intensity may go down and there may be light to moderate showers. Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh may receive few good spells of rain until July 23rd or so. Thereafter monsoon surge will get weaken there also.
In the absence of any significant weather system over Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea, chances of revival of monsoon over South Peninsular seems to be bleak. By the end of the month, rain surplus of southern states of the country may come down significantly.
Evolving La Nina phase is expected during latter half of monsoon. Monsoon rains may pick up pace once again during the month of August and September.
