The opening month of the monsoon performed quite well and delivered a fair share of rainfall in the core monsoon zone. The month of June ended with 110% of the long-period average (LPA) with an equitable distribution over the central and eastern parts of the country. Over North India, the monsoon normally advances around the 1st week of July and is therefore kept out of the ambit of performance. Notwithstanding a slight delay in the arrival of monsoon, the pre-monsoon activity has delivered normal rainfall over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and West Uttar Pradesh.
The rain-fed areas consisting of central and eastern parts of the country have performed more than the expected bounds. Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh topped the list with an excess of 111% and 89% rainfall and even had a stint of floods close to the foothills. The state of West Bengal, invariably a trickier, gathered a surplus of 44% during the month with the northern half performing better than the south. Major threat over the central parts is born by the drought-stricken pockets of Marathwada and Vidarbha. The complete region along with Odisha and Chhattisgarh were bailed out without any major happening. Yes, Saurashtra and Kutch division was a slight dampener with a shortfall of 27%. East and West Madhya Pradesh competed with each other and had a close finish by recording an excess of 43% and 30% rainfall respectively. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Saurashtra & Kutch, Jammu & Kashmir and Northeast India underperformed with deficiency varying from 20% to 50%.
The month of June has never been a steady performer and has a track record of large variability. In the last 21 years, since 2001, the month of June finished with a surplus of >= 10% on 8 occasions and reeled with a matching shortfall of <= 10% on 7 junctures. The outliers during this period were 2001 and 2009 with respective excess and shortfall of +40% and -52%. The month of June has never been a prudent indicator of monsoon season as such and therefore can not be relied upon for the upcoming core monsoon months of July and August. Monsoon generally holds its reputation of neither failing nor excelling in all four months of the season. The month of June has handed over the baton and July has commenced on a soft note with rainfall remaining less than the daily threshold in the opening week. These ups and downs are part of a broader picture of the monsoon. Sharp recovery is expected with monsoon resuming normal anytime soon after 08th July and sustaining thereafter. Season as such is not expected to shroud the prospects of decent monsoon.
