Mumbai is all set to record the first heavy spell of monsoon shortly. Earlier cyclone Nisarga gave amiss and spared the city from a deluge during the first week. Cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea off South Gujarat and Konkan coast is positioning itself for the maiden three-digit spell in the next 24-48hr.
Mumbai runs nearly dry for 5 months from December to April and breaks this jinx with pre-monsoon showers mostly during the second half of May. The month of June has a normal rainfall of 493.1mm and has achieved this target on 8 out of 10 previous years( 2010-2019). The variability of rainfall in the onset month of June is very high. June 2014 was the driest with 87.3mm and June 2015 being the wettest recording 1106.7mm, which incidentally is also an all-time record for the financial capital. In the last five years, rainfall in excess of 200mm in 24 hours was recorded thrice: 235mm(29 June 2019), 231mm(25 June 2018), 283mm(19 June 2015). Mumbai and suburbs recording rainfall of 100mm or more is quite common.
June 2020 awaits the capital city achieving this feat. So far the city has cumulative rainfall of 226mm against the monthly normal of 493mm. The cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea off the Konkan coast is likely to infuse surge of strong southwesterly winds resulting in heavy rainfall in the next 24 hours. The southern half of the city and surrounding suburbs are likely to have more intense rains than the northern ones. Heavy rainfall is likely to spillover to cities like Pune and Nasik too.
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