The state of Kerala is likely to have an extremely wet spell between 25th and 27th June. A cyclonic circulation is marked over South Bay of Bengal and is shifting to Southwest Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast on the 25th of June and later move inland. This is going to enhance the rainfall over the state 25th onward and will be more intense in the subsequent 48hrs. Very heavy rains are expected on 26th June over the southern parts of the state and more intense over the northern half on 27th June.
Kerala is one of the rainiest sub-division during the monsoon season. Rains are more intense during the first half of the season than the latter. The cumulative rainfall of June and July is double the count of July and August. The month of July is the rainiest of all with an average of 720mm.
The onset phase nearly drowned the state with an excess of 46% in the first week of June. However, the first half of the second week went almost dry and at the end of the second week, the state slipped into a marginal deficit of 5%. Moderate rains continued in the third week and the cumulative rainfall as on 22nd June has a shortfall of 10%.
With the wet spell coming up shortly, the deficiency may reduce marginally and build up again towards the fag end of the month for the paucity of rains. The month of June is likely to end within normal limits with a small shortfall of about 8-10%.