Monsoon 2020 heading for excess, September holds the key

Monsoon 2020 seems to be heading for swampy rains soaking many parts, particularly the central and southern regions. The courtesy spurt of low pressure areas during August, bountiful rains have lashed most regions barring few pockets. Only 14% of the total area has registered below normal rains which actually is a fait accompli even during one of the best monsoon season. The space and time distribution of rainfall is fairly even over the plains except over West Uttar Pradesh which may also get filled in the coming days.

The month of June started on the extremely wet note and finished with a surplus of 18%, the best performance in the last 7 years. The following month July was a bit dampener recoding shortfall of 10%. Notwithstanding underperformance of one of the core monsoon months, August came as a savior and has nearly filled the vacuum. It is heading for one of the rainiest months on record, pushing the monsoon margins closure to a deluge.

The month of June, July, and August put together have a normal rainfall of 710.5mm (June 166.9 mm, July 285.3 mm, and August 258.3 mm). The seasonal total as of 25 August stands at 717.3 mm. One more week to go for August and decent rains during this period are promising to take the season to at least 109%. Northwest India will be the only region having less than normal rainfall primarily due to substantial deficiency over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh.

September holds the key to the overall seasonal performance. The month may not be as soaking as August and may end up close to its normal rainfall of 170mm. Even in this scenario, the Monsoon 2020 is heading towards ‘Above Normal’ status with an outside chance to repeat the performance of 2019 and reach near 110%.