Monsoon rains have been on the lower side for the last few days. In fact, for the past five consecutive days, daily countrywide cumulative rainfall deficiency has been around 50%. In wake of this, seasonal countrywide rainfall deficiency which was stagnant at 7%, is now at 8%.
According to weathermen, we do not expect any improvement in the situation for the next 2-3 days. This will further increase the deficiency to 9% in the next one or two days.
However, we can expect some relief by next week, around September 17. As per weather models, two typhoons- Barijat and Mangkhut had been affecting China. Both the weather systems are likely to enter Indian seas as weakened systems.
The combination of the remnants of these systems would lead to formation of a cyclonic circulation in North Bay of Bengal by September 17. The system would start getting more organized during the next two days, intensifying into a low pressure area.
As a result, rains would start lashing coastal parts of Odisha and adjoining Andhra Pradesh by September 20. In fact, peripherals of the system would also give rains over West Bengal.
The potential low pressure area is most likely to move in west direction and cross the coast. As it moves further rains would also revive over several parts of East India and few areas of Central India.
According to weathermen, this system may not be able to travel up to West Madhya Pradesh but would definitely impact parts of East Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra in terms of rains.
Not only this, it would also pull down the Monsoon trough which at present is running along the foothills of Himalayas. It might also strengthen Monsoon surge along the West Coast, which might bring some rains over Mumbai.
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