We are reaching the fag end of the Southwest Monsoon 2018. So far, all the three months have remained deficient – June by 5%, July by 6% and August by 8%. By the end of August, the countrywide seasonal cumulative rainfall deficiency was at 6%.
Though September managed to see good rains during the first week of September but that hardly helped in improving the deficiency number.
Thereafter, Monsoon went weak, during which the country witnessed least rainfall. Northeast India was the only region of the country to record some rainfall during that time.
As a result, the countrywide rainfall deficiency plummeted by big numbers and as on September 19, it stands at 10%. With this steep rise in deficiency, country is now staring at drought conditions.
According to weathermen, when the rainfall deficiency is over 10% and area-wise deficiency is 20% in plains, it is declared as drought. At present, we have 31% area as rain deficit that include Gujarat, North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Haryana, Jharkhand, West Rajasthan.
According to Skymet Weather, there is some relief ahead, and country might not enter the drought bracket. This 10% deficiency will sustain for the next 48 hours.
Thereafter, we can expect some improvement courtesy to the deep depression in west-central Bay of Bengal. The system is travelling favourable weather conditions and is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 12-24 hours. This system would be responsible for infusing a fresh Monsoon surge that would bring rains over the most parts of the country in the coming week.
Barring extreme areas of Southern Peninsula, entire country would see rains of varying intensity. In fact, there are chances of heavy rains over all these areas. Thus, most likely all the rain deficient pockets would be supplemented.
The coming spell would be a prolonged one which would stay for almost entire week. Beginning September 20, heavy to very heavy rains would start lashing eastern parts of the country. Gradually, rains belt would cover parts of Central India and eventually reaching northwestern parts of the country.
Depression has also revived the off-shore trough along the West Coast, wherein in Maharashtra would see good rains. Not only this, parts of Karnataka and Telangana would also see some moderate to heavy rains.
September is battling high rainfall deficiency amounting over 30%. With these approaching rains, we can expect improvement in this deficiency. This would also help in marginal improvement in the countrywide deficiency.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
