The official date for the commencement of withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon is September 1. However, we have invariably seen Monsoon surpassing this date. Similar to the onset, withdrawal process of Monsoon also does not follow any rule book.
The only consistent fact is that the withdrawal of the Monsoon is not attempted before September 1, irrespective of the weather conditions.
Following are five conditions which must be met before the declaration of retreat of this four-month long season.
• Rise in temperatures
• Decrease in humidity
• Change in the winds
• Establishment of anti-cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan
• Decrease in clouding/ absence of rains
According to Skymet Weather, all these conditions must prevail for at least four to five days for the declaration of commencement of the season.
Now, for almost 10 days, country has been witnessing weak Monsoon conditions, with rains confined to northeastern region only. Further, last 2 days even saw rains receding from Northeast India and only one or two pockets of southern India has been witnessing some rainfall.
However, situation have now once again taken a u-turn. All thanks to the passage of Western Disturbance and formation of a potential low pressure area in Bay of Bengal. Both the systems are likely to infuse a fresh surge of Monsoon.
Right from East to Northwest India, most parts of these regions are likely to record moderate to heavy showers. Few areas might see some very heavy showers as well. Besides this, Monsoon would also revive along the West Coast and Mumbai which has been dry for last many days, would once again witness some spells.
With these conditions, we expect Monsoon to start retreating earliest by the fag end of September. In fact, there are chances that this might role over to October.
This can be touted as the replica of last year, wherein Monsoon 2017 began its withdrawal journey on September 27.
However, prolonged stay of Monsoon season might sound as a good news, but it comes with some repercussions also.
When the commencement of withdrawal of Monsoon is delayed, the whole process might take a month-long time. Now this would further delay the onset of the next season.
According to Skymet Weather, this delay would also push forward the onset of winters over the region. And with El Niño all set to make appearance by the end of the year, we can expect further impact on the upcoming season, which turn mild due to all these factors.
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Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com
