Firstly, the Monsoon systems when travelling up to North India have the tendency to take the axis of the Monsoon trough north of its normal position which reduces rains over other parts. Secondly, a break in Monsoon happens usually during the month of August and sometimes it ends up being a prolonged one.
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During this time, rains remained confined to Northeast India as well as the foothills of the Himalayas. Other parts mostly see subdued rainfall activity.
The last time surplus rains in August were witnessed in the year 2011 wherein rains were at +11 percent for the country. August 2012 was also normal at +1 percent.
Thereafter, all the five years have seen less than normal rains. The most deficient rains were witnessed in 2015 where Pan India rains were at -22 percent. In the year 2017, rain deficiency was at -12 percent for August.
The table below shows Pan India rain amounts in August from 2011 to 2017:
Talking about this August, currently a low-pressure area is over Northeast Uttar Pradesh and the Monsoon trough is running across this system, north of its normal position. Similar situation is expected to persist for the next 48 hours.
Rains are expected to remain confined to Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal. Meanwhile, other parts of the country including central, south and North India will see lesser rains than their daily average.
In fact, the month of August is expected to begin on a suppressed note. Rains will remain on the poorer side between August 2 and 5.
A feeble system is expected to develop on August 6 in North Bay of Bengal which will quickly shift to the interiors due to which rains will increase over East and Northeast India while other parts will only see subdued activity.
In a nutshell it can be said that the first ten days of August will see a weak phase of Monsoon as rains will be less than normal.
Image Credit: Indiatoday
Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com