The countrywide cumulative rainfall for the overall season from June 1 till September 30 was recorded at 841.3 mm against the normal rains of 887.5 mm.
Skymet Weather had already predicted below average rainfall at 95% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the LPA, contrary to other organizations that had predicted good Monsoon rains, this season.
Skymet Weather had announced its forecast on March 28 and stuck to the same till the end of the Monsoon season. Meanwhile, other organizations kept updating their forecast from time to time. In fact, country’s nodal weather agency, IMD had also updated its Monsoon 2017 forecast from 96% to 98%.
It seems that these fluctuations were influenced by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) of the United States and BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) of Australia. These models had earlier indicated towards the collapse of the evolving El Niño by mid-August, leading to apprehensions of increased Monsoon rains in August and September.
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Skymet Weather too had considered El Niño conditions as well as other weather phenomena such as position and probability of emergence of MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) in all probabilities for its Monsoon forecast. Though various organizations around the world kept on changing their forecast for El Niño and IOD, but Skymet Weather remained at 95% of the LPA.
The month of June saw exceptionally good spells of rain across most parts of the country including Northwest India. As a result, the actual rains in the month settled at 104% of LPA. Active Monsoon conditions continued during July as well and the month too ended with surplus rains at 102% of LPA.
July and August witnessed some of the worst floods in Gujarat, South Rajasthan and Mumbai. Assam, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha also reeled under the fury of floods.
Owing to these incessant rains, cumulative countrywide Monsoon rains had reached 106% for briefly. But, Skymet Weather was confident that the approaching break-Monsoon conditions due to oscillation of the axis of Monsoon trough(AMT) to the foothills, would once again reduce the Monsoon surplus.
Meanwhile, September saw prolonged dry spell across India during the first half of the month. Though, rain had picked up pace during the third week but it was confined to South India only. Last week of the month did witness the rain belt covering over some parts of East India but that did not increase the rainfall tally substantially.
Further, our forecast was not only accurate for the country as a whole but regionally as well. For instance, Skymet Weather had predicted below normal rains for northern plains and parts of Northeast India before the onset of Monsoon 2017.
As on September 30, the cumulative rainfall for Uttar Pradesh was deficit by 29%, followed by Haryana 26% and Punjab 22%. Similarly, as predicted, Nagaland and Manipur also remained rain deficient by 25% and 33%, respectively.
Image credit: Tripoto
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com