God’s Own Country – Kerala is the place in India where Southwest Monsoon makes its first appearance making it official for the Monsoon to commence over the country.
The last few days of May and initial two days of June saw fairly widespread rain over Kerala. Few places received more than 3-digit rainfall in the span of 24 hours.
However, even the continuous lashing of rains over the state didn’t make up for the Monsoon to be officially declared. Thereafter, the continuous rainfall that picked up pace and intensity till June 2 saw drop in intensity.
The rains have been below normal from June 2 to June 6.
On June 1 the state received 96% rainfall and on June 2 the state received 133% of rainfall. Then the deficit in the rainfall started – On June 3 the deficit in rainfall recorded was at 31%. On June 4, the deficit was at 40% and on June 5 the deficit in rainfall reached 17%.
The rainfall has been below par for the last four days, but the total rainfall still stands at 21% (+) for the first 5 days of June. The rainfall has subdued over Kerala.
The rainfall over the landmass of Kerala has to be in respect with the weather system prevailing over the Arabian Sea. The current models show that there is a lack of clouding near Kerala.
OLR – Outgoing Longwave Radiation- is one of the criteria on which the declaration of Monsoon is done. OLR is directly related to cloud formation of a particular area and the heat trapped in a particular region.
With less could formation in the region close to Kerala which is 5-10 degree north (latitude) and 70-75 degree east (longitude) the OLR is increasing at considerable rate ever since the start of June.
The lat long box near Kerala and equator is designated for the Monsoon to pick up strength, but since the start of June the OLR values has been increasing. The threshold of OLR value is to be around 200w/m2 to declare Monsoon.
However, Kerala has been receiving continuous rain since the end of May. It is just a matter of time and Southwest Monsoon will set in its foot in God's own country.
Image Credit: dominica.malcolm.wordpress.com