The axis of the Monsoon trough has already began its northward movement and will lie close to the foothills of the Himalayas after 48 hours. Light passing rains will continue for now. Intensity of rainfall will increase any time after 24 hours. Skymet Weather predicts inclement weather conditions and heavy Monsoon rains on July 14 and 15. This spell of rain will have the potential to disrupt normal life in Uttarakhand.
There is possibility of heavy rain in parts of Himachal Pradesh as well that may cause landslide or damage to life in low lying areas.
Two factors influence the movement of the Monsoon trough, as and when it gets established. Firstly, the Monsoon systems forming in the Bay of Bengal move inland and then travel in a fashion to take the Monsoon trough upwards. Secondly, the trough is pulled up by the Western Disturbances, moving across the upper Himalayas. In any situation, Monsoon rains are enhanced in Uttarakhand. Even the western end of the Monsoon trough alone can bring heavy rainfall in the state.
Monsoon in Uttarakhand
It’s worth mentioning that Uttarakhand is the rainiest pocket of the country during the Monsoon season, after Northeast India and the West Coast. Northeast India and the West Coast contribute about 30% of the total Monsoon rains. The state receives an average of 1229 mm of rainfall in the four-month-long rainy season. The seasonal average of Uttarakhand is more than double of Jammu & Kashmir and about one and half times of Himachal Pradesh.
The equitable rainfall distribution in Uttarakhand for the months of July and August are 428 mm and 226 mm, respectively. These months witness very heavy Monsoon showers.
Though the month of June ended up with a pan-India rainfall deficiency of 11%, the state of Uttarakhand achieved its target and recorded normal rains. As of July 12, Uttarakhand received about 174.6 mm of rainfall against the normal of 167.8 mm.
July by itself has also seen good rains in Uttarakhand. The state received about 151 mm of rainfall, while normally it should have received just 146 mm. Such heavy spells of rain are capable of bringing cloudbursts, landslides and mudslides.
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Please Note: Any information picked from here can be attributed to skymetweather.com