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Updated on May 31, 2015: Onset of Monsoon in Kerala misses scheduled date
Southwest Monsoon is known for its truant nature and it generally defies predictions. This year, the Monsoon current lost strength after reaching Hambantota in Sri Lanka. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) remained stagnant there for over a week. As of now, Kerala is receiving only patchy rains. We can expect Monsoon to set in over Kerala only after June 3.
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Updated on May 30, 2015: Delayed Onset of Monsoon over Kerala
The Arabian Sea branch of the Southwest Monsoon made very slow advancement and is yet to reach the extreme southern tip (Kerala) of India. Cloud build up on either side of the sea was looking promising till a few days back for the timely onset over Kerala. However, it slowed down as the cloud pattern became a little diffused and unorganized.
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Updated on May 29, 2015: Countdown to the Onset of Monsoon in Kerala has begun
The countdown to the onset of Monsoon in Kerala has begun. Monsoon clouds are approaching the West Coast of India, making conditions favourable for the onset of Southwest Monsoon. However, we should keep in mind that the onset of Monsoon is a complex phenomenon involving research for weeks or even months. Before declaring the onset of Monsoon in Kerala we should follow certain guidelines and in this story we will discuss these criteria.
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Also Read: What is the northern limit of Monsoon
Updated on May 28, 2015: Monsoon in India
Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into southern parts of south Arabian Sea and Maldives-Comorin areas and some more parts of southwest Bay of Bengal. At present, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through 6.0°N/60.0°E, 6.0°N/70.0°E, 7.0°N/80.0°E, 10.0°N/86.0°E, 13.0°N/89.0°E and 18.0°N/95.0°E. In absence of any significant weather system in both the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, further advancement of the NLM looks slow. As of now, Monsoon is a little behind schedule over Sri Lanka. Though the Monsoon current does not appear strong enough, existing cloud pattern and pre-Monsoon activity in Peninsular India suggest that Southwest Monsoon will arrive shortly over Kerala. Consequently, its arrival is expected to be around the scheduled date.
Updated on May 27, 2015: Conditions are favourable for onset of Monsoon in India
The onset date of Southwest Monsoon over the mainland of India is approaching. At present, the NLM can be seen passing through 5.0°N/79.0°E, Hambantota (Sri Lanka), 10.0°N/86.0°E, 13.0°N/89.0°E and 18.0°N/95.0°E. Conditions are favourable for further advancement of the NLM over Maldives, southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin region and some more parts of south and central Bay of Bengal. According to Skymet, Kerala could start receiving good showers in next couple of days. However, the onset phase of Monsoon will be mild and its advancement will be slow.
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Find out Why is Mumbai the Best Place to Visit During the Monsoon.
Updated on May 25, 2015: CEO's take on Monsoon 2015
Onset of Monsoon over Kerala will not be as strong as we had initially expected. Moreover, in the initial phase Monsoon will be confined to extreme southern parts only. The onset of Monsoon over Mumbai and Kolkata is likely to be delayed by one week. “I think, Monsoon will make onset over Mumbai by June 15-16, as opposed to the normal date of June 10. In Kolkata, I would put the onset date around the same time as opposed to normal date of June 10.”
Views of Skymet's CEO @JATINSKYMET on Overview of Monsoon 2015 "Onset on time but weak". READ HERE. http://t.co/YoWYJmMBHO #Monsoon2015 — SkymetWeather (@SkymetWeather) May 25, 2015
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Also watch, The Joy of Monsoon in Kolkata
Updated on May 23, 2015: Impact of Southwest Monsoon in India and Southeast Asia
Southwest Monsoon affects weather in India and other Southeast Asian countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar. Pakistan also receives minimal rain during the Monsoon season.
Also read, What is Southwest Monsoon?
Large parts of these countries lack proper irrigation systems. Therefore, agriculture largely depends on Monsoon rains, filling wells and aquifers for the rest of the year. In India, Kharif crops require monsoonal rains for their growth. Industry in India and Southeast Asia also depends on Monsoon rains.
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Updated on May 21, 5:00 pm (IST): Southwest Monsoon hits Kerala
Southwest Monsoon has arrived over Sri Lanka. It has also covered entire Andaman Sea, some more parts of southeast, southwest and eastcentral Bay of Bengal.
Updated on May 21, 1:20 pm (IST): Southwest Monsoon inches closer
Weather conditions seem favourable for the timely onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala. According to Skymet, the Monsoon current is likely to gain strength and cover more parts of central and south Bay of Bengal, across Sri Lanka.
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Updated on May 20, 2015: Normal Monsoon rains amidst El Nino scare
El Nino is invariably linked with poor performance of Southwest Monsoon in India. However, the effect of El Nino on Monsoon will always remain a contentious issue.
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El Nino had started evolving during the autumn months of 2014 and ran through the winter season as well. Weather agencies across the world had pronounced 50-60% chances of El Nino, during the Indian summer months.
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Going by the current scenario, we can say that there is a probability of 90% El-Nino during the Southwest Monsoon months. However, it is showing a declining trend.
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Updated on May 19, 2015: Rain reduces in South India, normal pattern ahead of Monsoon The intensity of rain over Peninsular India has reduced considerably. However, it is not a cause of concern as pre-Monsoon rains generally take a backseat before the onset of Southwest Monsoon. For next few days, only light to moderate rain will be witnessed over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Interior Karnataka.
Also watch, Romancing the rains in Kerala.
The cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal is moving away from the coast. The other feeble cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Kerala region has also become less-marked.
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Updated on May 18, 2015: Monsoon arrives over Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Southwest Monsoon arrived over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, which is 4 days prior to the scheduled date of May 20. The NLM is currently passing through 5°N and 86°E, 10°N and 90°E, Long Island and 15°N and 98°E.
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Also watch, The Magic of Monsoon in Goa
Updated on May 15, 2015: Forecast for Onset and Progress of Monsoon 2015
Monsoon 2015 will arrive on time,between May 18 and 20, over the Andaman Sea. It is likely to reach Kerala between May 27 and 29, simultaneously covering some parts of Northeast India.
#SkymetWeather Forecast for onset and progress of #monsoon2015 READ HERE: http://t.co/IOVAaVG3Rb #monsoon #weather — SkymetWeather (@SkymetWeather) May 15, 2015
Major chunks of South India and entire Northeast India will be covered between June 6 and 9. Thereafter, the Monsoon surge is expected to slow down and reach Mumbai in the western coast and Kolkata on eastern side between June 11 and 14.
Also watch, Chasing the Monsoon in New Delhi
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Updated on May 13, 2015: Monsoon likely to make timely onset over Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Pre-Monsoon rains have gained strength and become widespread. This indicates that Southwest Monsoon is round the corner. Monsoon generally reaches Andaman and Nicobar Islands by May 20 and then advances to cover more parts of the Bay of Bengal and Kerala.
The cyclonic circulation over extreme southern parts of the Peninsula will remain in the region for 48 hours with marginal northward shift and finally draw the Monsoon current towards Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
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Click here to know, What is Monsoon?
Updated on May 12, 2015: Monsoon to hit Kerala on time this year
It has been officially announced that Monsoon 2015 is expected to hit Kerala on its usual date of June 1. Pre-Monsoon rains have gained momentum across the country. This activity will set the stage for the arrival of the four month-long rainy season.
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Also read, Monsoon Mayhem: Battling the Season of Allergies
Updated on April 22, 2015: Skymet foreshadows normal Monsoon for India in 2015
Skymet expects the coming Monsoon 2015 to be ‘normal’. It has forecast the Monsoon at 102% (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month long rainy season, extending from June to September.
In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects Peninsular India to be at moderate risk throughout the season. There seems to be weakness in Tamil Nadu Rayalseema, South Interior Karnataka, east Madhya Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh.
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Updated on April 22, 2015: IMD forecasts Monsoon at 93 per cent of LPA
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its Monsoon forecast for 2015 and assessed the season's rainfall at 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%.
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