Southwest Monsoon usually withdraws from Mumbai around Mid October, which is expected this year as well. Presently, Mumbai rains are expected to continue for the next 3-4 days until October 12. Moreover, moderate showers are expected to be seen over the commercial capital today and tomorrow mostly during the evening and night hours, accompanied with lightning and thunderstorms as well.
This activity will take place in association with a Cyclonic Circulation which is over Arabian Sea off the Konkan Coast. At present, this circulation is off North Konkan and Karnataka Coast, the system is gradually shifting upwards but still remaining in proximity with the Konkan Coast. Thus, rains will continue, it may not be very heavy but moderate showers are expected. In fact, a couple of heavy spells today and tomorrow cannot be ruled out.
Now, we expect some clearance thereafter, and that is how Monsoon is going to withdraw. However, Bay of Bengal will be very active in terms of hosting storms. Moreover, next week may see Cyclone Jawad it is going to be host storms over the region. And like the last cyclones, this upcoming Cyclone will also travel across Central India, and may reach the other side of the coast, thus, next weekend, Mumbai rains may once again make an appearance.
Logically speaking, that is a Post Monsoon activity but the gap between the two episodes of rains will be too small, which may give a feel that Monsoon has not yet withdrawn from the city of Mumbai. However, withdrawal of Monsoon at no stage should be construed as a total absence of rains. Withdrawal of Monsoon is based on change in environmental conditions including wind patterns, which will take place after October 12 itself.
The rains after the aforementioned date will be attributed to the upcoming Cyclone which will cross coast and give some rains over Mumbai around October 16. These showers should not be considered as Monsoon activities in any way.
