The monsoon current will go weak for the states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi during the remaining days of August. Fleeting and infrequent, short-duration showers may still visit on many days during this period, but a typical monsoon downpour is unlikely in the leftover period of August. August is the rainiest per se and is the last perceptible monsoon month before the southwest monsoon commences withdrawal from this region, sometimes halfway through September.
Somehow, Punjab and Haryana did not have the joy of a complete monsoon this season. Both the states are still rain deficit with Punjab being the highest sub-division in the country. Courtesy, some decent showers in the first half of August, saved the grace. Punjab and Haryana had a seasonal shortfall of 45% and 41% rainfall, halfway through the monsoon. The deficit has now narrowed down to 33% and 16%, respectively. However, the upcoming spell of inadequate rains may once again swing it back to the olden days.
Consistency of monsoon trough to the vicinity of the region was the hallmark in the first half of the month. However, that bonhomie is over, at least for the time being and the agri bowl may have to struggle for much-needed showers at this time of the year. The monsoon trough will not be traceable in the lower levels of the atmosphere for the next three days. Courtesy, of anticyclonic winds over Rajasthan, the trough may abstain on the western end during this period.
In the meantime, the low-pressure area over West Bengal and Bangladesh will draw closer and reach Madhya Pradesh by 24th August. The broad circulation of this system will drag the monsoon trough, well south of its normal position, above the friction level of 3,000 feet. The weather system will travel across South Rajasthan and Gujarat between the 25th and 28th of August before it speeds away to the northeast Arabian Sea on the 29th of August. Minimal weather activity is expected over Punjab, Haryana and Delhi during the life span of this low-pressure area. Yes, scattered activity with light to moderate showers can be expected when the trough travels southward, cutting across the northern plains. Conciliatory light to moderate rainfall can be expected between 24th and 28th August 2024.
Image Courtesy: The Indian Express