Updated on May 25, 2018 11:45 AM: Mekunu intensifies into extremely severe cyclone, to hit Oman tonight.
As predicted by Skymet Weather, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Mekunu over West central Arabian Sea has intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm. It is centered at 15.4°N and 54.5°E, around 315 km north-northeast of Socotra Islands and 180 km south-southeast of Salalah Islands.
Mekunu would continue to move in north-northwestwards and is most likely to make landfall by the midnight of May 25 near Salalah Islands between Oman and Yemen coast. As expected, winds are blowing at a speed of 160 to 170 kmph gusting up to 180 kmph.
With system moving closer, weather conditions have already changed over the coastal areas. Sky conditions are already overcast, with some areas already raining. This is also accompanied with squally winds.
According to Skymet Weather, both rains and wind speed is likely to pick up pace as Mekunu nears. The system is likely to develop an eye, which when passing through the coast would lead to clear sky and calm winds for some time. However, that should not be construed as clearance of the inclement weather conditions. As per weathermen, the worst of storm is expected after the passage of eye from the region.
Updated on May 25, 2018 8:45 AM: Mekunu to intensify into extremely severe cyclone anytime soon.
Very Severe Cyclone Mekunu continues to retain its strength for around 24 hours now. The system has been moving at a very slow pace with the speed of 10 kmph for past 12 hours, thus providing more strength to the tropical storm.
At present, it is centered at 15.2°N and 54.5°E, around 290 km north-northeast of Socotra Islands and 210 km south-southeast of Salalah Islands. Winds are blowing at a speed of 150 to 160 kmph gusting up to 175 kmph.
Enhanced infrared satellite imageries are showing that system has deepened and has developed a ragged eye of 10 km. As the system gets more marked, it could develop a clear eye and increase its radius.
With system moving in favourable weather conditions, it is most likely to intensify further into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm anytime soon. This category of cyclone is declared when winds in association to this system is over 167 kmph.
Further, if the wind speed surpasses 222 kmph-mark, it would be declared as Super Cyclone. However, with Mekunu moving closer to the land mass, we do not expect it to go beyond Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm.
According to Skymet Weather, by the time Mekunu intensifies into Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, it would be quite close to the land mass. Thus, there are high chances that system may weaken and make a landfall as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm only. Moving in north-northwest direction, we expect Mekunu to make landfall by late night of May 25 or early morning of May 26 close to Salalah Islands between South Oman and North Yemen direction, we expect Mekunu to make landfall by late night of May 25 or early morning of May 26 close to Salalah Islands between South Oman and North Yemen.
Updated on May 24 at 5:00 pm: After rapidly intensifying into very severe cyclonic storm, Mekunu continues to sustain its strength for over 12 hours now. The system has been moving in north-northwest direction at a slow speed of 10 kmph. Winds are blowing at a speed of 150 to 160 kmph gusting up to 180 kmph.
At present, it is centered at 13°N and 55.6°E, around 190 km east-northeast of Socotra Islands and 470 km south-southeast of Salalah Islands. With system moving in favourable weather conditions, it is most likely to intensify further into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours.
The system is most likely to track north-northwestwards and make landfall somewhere between south Oman and southeast Yemen coasts, close to Salalah, as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm by May 26. During that time, the winds might even gust up to 180 kmph or more.
Updated on May 23 at 6:00pm: As predicted by Skymet Weather, the severe cyclonic storm Mekunu has further intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm on Wednesday afternoon. The system is presently centered at 11.5°N and 56.2°E, about 250 km southeast of Socotra Islands and 950 south-southwest of Masirah Islands.
The system would continue to move northwestwards initially and later in north-northwest direction. At present, wind speed is reaching over 130 kmph gusting up to 160 kmph. In wake of this, sea conditions are rough to very rough, with wave height reaching up to 12-14 meters.
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According to Skymet Weather, the system continues to move in favourable weather conditions. Mekunu is moving in open waters, with sea surface temperatures around 31°C and low wind shear. All these factors are providing ample support for further intensification of the system before it makes a landfall.
Weathermen are view that Mekunu may become a extremely severe cyclonic storm by late night of Wednesday or early morning of Thursday. Winds speed would also increase over 160 kmph.
Mekunu is likely to brush the eastern parts of Socotra Islands by Thursday as a very severe cyclonic storm. In fact, these islands are already within the striking range of the system. Since it is a slow moving system, it would already start giving inclement weather conditions in terms of torrential rains and high velocity winds before it makes the landfall.
It is expected to make landfall close to the border of Yemen and Oman by May 26. According to weathermen, Mekunu is likely to sustain the strength of very severe cyclonic storm at least for 36 hours.
Impact of Severe Cyclone Mekunu on Monsoon 2018
The severity of Severe Cyclone Mekunu has slightly delayed the onset of Monsoon 2018 over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which was scheduled by May 20. However, as Mekunu moves further west, we expect Monsoon to progress and cover Bay Islands most likely by May 25.
Meanwhile, expected arrival of the Southwest Monsoon 2018 will not be impacted and would make an onset over Kerala on May 28, with an error margin of +/- 2 days.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com