The Southwest Monsoon finished with above-normal rains registering 109% rainfall of LPA. It has rapidly withdrawn from North India and some parts of north Madhya Pradesh also. Wintery conditions with hazy mornings and nip in the air are likely over north India in the next 10 days.
All the 3 controversial farm bills found assent of the President and have now become laws. Earlier the introduction and presentation of the bills led to strong protests. Also, the farmers in a few states expressed their anger, opposing the bills and disrupted rail and road traffic. farmers have expressed apprehension that the centre’s farm reforms would pave a way for the dismantling of the minimum support price system along with Mandi culture. To allay fears of farmers the government clarified that the MSP regime will stay and the APMC (agriculture produce market committee) will function as usual and procure Paddy. The centre announced early paddy procurement in the agricultural bowl states of Punjab and Haryana. Also, the MSP for the major crops of cotton and paddy was hiked to assure the farmers that the centre will not renege from the commitment. However, as per the data recorded by the Punjab Mandi Board, the going rate is more than Rs 315 lower than the revised regulated price per quintal. Basmati rate in the Mandis of Punjab was in the range of Rs 1560 to Rs 2140 per quintal and the total purchase was more than 7400 tonnes so far. The stalemate between the government and section of farmers continued without any amicable resolution. Some states are alleging that the bill has intruded into their legislative domain and therefore, should be struck down. To my mind, the efficacy of these bills and their consequences with respect to farmers will be evident after the current season of Kharif itself. An observation period of 6 months will suffice to prove or negate the claims as such. Disadvantages, if any, these provisions will find rejections by the farming community automatically.
The low-pressure area of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will travel across the central parts. This may pause withdrawal of Monsoon for a while from parts of Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Mumbai may receive retreating Monsoon showers light in nature during the week but intense during the next one.
North India
Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from entire north India. Mainly clear sky with hazy mornings is likely over most parts in the plains. Uttar Pradesh is likely to receive light to moderate rains more intense during the middle of the week. Few parts of east Rajasthan are also likely to have light rains in the second half of the week.
East and Northeast India
This region will experience weather activity throughout the week but more intense in the first half. The proximity of low-pressure area will cause fairly widespread rains and thundershowers over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and entire northeast India. Heavy rains with thunderstorms and lightning are likely over many places over the region.
Central India
The state of Odisha and Chhattisgarh is likely to have widespread rains and thundershowers with heavy spells at a few places in the first half of the week and becoming mild thereafter. In the second half, the rainfall belt will shift to parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharastra and finally over Gujarat and Konkan on the last two days.
South Peninsula
To start with the weather activity will remain confined to Kerala and Karnataka and isolated elsewhere. Northern parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh will observe scattered rain and thundershowers during the first half of the week. Extreme southern parts of the peninsula covering Kerala, Tamil Nandu and south interior Karnataka is likely to have rain and thundershowers on 9th and 10th of October.
Delhi-NCR
Southwest Monsoon has already withdrawn from Delhi NCR. Generally, clear sky with hazy morning is likely throughout the week. The afternoons could be warm and windy. Day and night temperature is likely to be 35 and 22 degrees respectively.
Chennai
The first half of the week will be sultry with cloudy sky. Light showers are expected in the second half. The day and night temperatures will remain 36 and 25-degree centigrade respectively.
Delhi Pollution
Overall Delhi pollution has increased to some extent. Today AQI is 150.
Now wins over will be light over Delhi and NCR and adjoining areas of North-West India. Stubble burning has increased in last few days over Punjab adjoining parts of Pakistan as well as parts of Haryana. Wind blowing from north-westerly direction therefore, the smoke from stubble Burning as well as local pollutants make increased the pollution level further.
Winds will pick up once again by October 8, leading to dispersal of pollutants. These moderate winds will continue for the next 4 to 5 days. Therefore, we do not expect much increase in pollution over Delhi and NCR until October 15. Thereafter, temperatures will also start dropping leading to the formation of mist and haze during morning hours and politician may increase during that time. It will be in the moderate category over many places. Isolated pockets may come under poor category also.
