Initial signature of maiden monsoon system of this season is expected to appear over Head Bay and coastal parts, as early as 03rd July. This feature is likely to have a gestation period of 2-3 days over the same region. A well marked cyclonic circulation will surface on 05th and 06th July. Favorable sea conditions may manifest this circulation in to a low pressure area (subject to heat potential), over North Bay of Bengal and coastal parts of West Bengal and Odisha.
No significant monsoon system, as cyclonic circulation or low pressure area, formed over the Indian Seas in the month of June 2022. This maiden system is showing signs of aligned and circular wind pattern appear in the upper levels of atmosphere early next week. It essentially will need favorable environmental conditions to get organized and grow further. The preliminary signal is promising to host the 1st weather system of the season over favorable waters of Bay of Bengal, off West Bengal and Odisha coast.
As of now, fairly organized and consolidated weather feature is expected to stay over the sea and coastline between 04thand 06thJuly. It is likely to move inland crossing coastline of North Odisha on 07thJuly. Further, west – northwest movement is probable across Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. It is little early to get in to prognostication beyond these timelines. However, an active monsoon phase for the eastern, central , western and northern parts of the country seems quite likely during 1st half of July 2022.
First half of July is quite susceptible for flooding rains over West Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan region. Weakened remnants of low pressure area or cyclonic circulations have a tendency to be resurgent over Southwest Madhya Pradesh and neighboring Maharashtra. Moist winds from the Arabian Sea feed such weather disturbances to revive. Under their influence: South Rajasthan, Southwest Madhya Pradesh, North Maharashtra, Konkan and Gujarat become vulnerable to drowning rains. Meteorological conditions will be more predictable and reliable after 2-3 days. These areas need to be kept under observation for short notice preparatory and action mode, to meet the risk of inclement weather conditions.