Updated on October 25, 2019 3:30 AM: Deep depression to become Cyclone Kyarr any moment, may intensify into severe cyclone by today
Intensifying rapidly, the depression in East-Central Arabian Sea strengthened into a deep depression on late Thursday afternoon. It is likely to become a cyclonic storm Kyarr any moment. The system is presently getting closer to the coast and is centered at Latitude 15.7°N and Longitude 71.3°E, about 250 km west-southwest of Ratnagiri, 400 km southwest of Mumbai and 1860 km east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.
After tracking north-northeast till October 25, the likely tropical storm of is likely to re-curve and move westwards towards Oman and adjoining Yemen coast. With long sea travel ahead, chances are bright for Kyarr to become a severe cyclonic storm by the evening of October 25 and further into a very severe cyclone in subsequent 48 hours.
Updated on October 24, 2019 6:30 PM: Maiden storm of the season Cyclone Kyarr in 24 hours, heavy rain alert for Karnataka, Goa, Coastal Maharashtra
The countdown to season's maiden cyclone has finally begun. The well-marked low pressure area has already induced a depression over East-Central Arabian Sea. In fact, cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions are indicating that the depression has already intensified into a deep depression. With this, we can expect the system to strengthen into a tropical storm Kyarr anytime during the next 24 hours.
However, the likely cyclonic storm is most likely to head towards Oman and Yemen coast. At present, it is wait and watch situation. As reiterated, 80 percent of the cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea during this time tend to head towards Oman or Yemen. Very few move towards Gujarat or adjoining Karachi coast.
The system is presently centered at Latitude 15.4°N and Longitude 70.4°E, about 340 km west-southwest of Ratnagiri, 460 km southwest of Mumbai and 1710 km east-southeast of Salalah,Oman. The system would continue to track north-northeast, closer to the coast till October.
Thereafter, it is likely to re-curve and start moving in west-northwest direction. As it again dive into the open waters, the likely Cyclone Kyarr would encounter warmer sea surface temperatures (SST) to the tune of 29 degree Celsius. Minimum SST required for formation of cyclone is 27 degree Celsius.
Also, moving away from the coast, the vertical wind shear would also be low now. With this, potential cyclone would see speedy intensification. According to weathermen, the system is gradually becoming more consolidate and compact, with more clear and defined features.
As it becomes more accurate, the system would start governing the weather around it. During its process of becoming a cyclonic storm, Kyarr would be giving heavy rains over the Indian coast, particularly threatening Coastal Karnataka, Goa and South Konkan region of Maharashtra.
All the three regions are likely to record heavy to very heavy rains in span of next 48 hours. Places like Honavar, Mangaluru, Goa, Ratnagiri, and Vengurla would be most affected. In fact, potential cyclone Kyarr might also give some moderate rains with few intense spells over Mumbai, Pune and Nashik.
By the time it would become cyclone, it would have moved away from the Indian coast. Thus, majority of the rain activity would be then confined to sea but peripherals of the system would continue to give some rains over the Indian coast.
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