Maiden Low Pressure Area Of August Forming Over Bay Of Bengal, Active Monsoon Likely

First low pressure area of August is likely to appear shortly over Bay of Bengal(BoB).  A deep trough is likely to form on 14^thAugust, extending from Bangladesh to Northwest BoB, off Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coastline. Under its influence, a cyclonic circulation is expected over Northwest BoB and Odisha coast on the 15^thAug.  This feature will get organize rapidly and a low pressure area is likely to form in the subsequent 24hr. Earlier, the season witnessed only one low pressure area in June and four of these in July, including the one over Arabian Sea.

Monsoon trough is currently running north of its normal position, close to the foothills, all along its stretch from the western end  over Himachal Pradesh to eastern end over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. With this cyclonic circulation coming up over BoB, the eastern end will shift southward well beyond its normal position. This process will commence cessation of ‘break monsoon’ conditions and preparing stage for active and vigorous monsoon over eastern, central and northern parts of the country between 16^th and 24^thAugust.

To start with, the low pressure area is likely to meander over Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand till 19^thAug. Thereafter, the monsoon system, possibly as well marked low pressure, will sweep across Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab during the next five days, till 24^thAugust. The peripheral of the system will also affect Bihar, Telangana, Gujarat, Uttrakhand and Himachal Pradesh. The weather system is going to run a relay race, shifting intense monsoon rains from east to west between 15^th and 24^thAugust.

The seasonal rainfall deficiency is likely to reach about 7-8%, before the recovery starts anytime around 16^thAug, lasting for one week. The shortfall may dip to about 3-4% due to excess rains, mostly over the eastern and central parts of the country. State of Gujarat, reeling under large deficit, may not accrue adequate benefit with the passage of this system. The weather activity will be limited even along the Western Ghats (including Mumbai) and most parts of South Peninsula.