The deep depression over East-Central the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has intensified into a tropical storm. The storm is centred around 16.5 degrees N and 89.5 degrees E, about 520km southeast of Paradip (Odisha). The low-level cyclonic circulation is very well-marked around the system. However, the convective banding of clouds wrapped around the centre is slightly fragmented. But, the system is placed in a favourable environment, with low to moderate vertical wind shear. The sea surface temperature is fairly high at about 30°C, to support further intensification. The cyclonic storm is named ‘Dana’ by the member country Qatar.
The tropical storm will move west-northwest to reach over Northwest BoB and also intensify to a severe cyclonic storm, by early tomorrow. The weather system will keep moving in the same direction and come in close proximity to the Odisha-West Bengal coast. The vicinity of the coastline and rugged terrain may not permit, any further intensification and is likely to strike the coast as a severe cyclonic storm. The landfall is likely in the very early hours of 25th October 2024.
This is the third tropical storm in the Indian Seas during this year. Earlier, storm Remal formed in the pre-monsoon season and struck Bangladesh and the borderline of West Bengal in May 2024. There was another storm, Asna, in the thick of the southwest monsoon season, more of an in-situ formation over North Gujarat and South Rajasthan. Usually, the storms do not form during the summer monsoon season. Asna had quickly moved westward to enter the Arabian Sea and move away from the Indian coastline.
Dana is the maiden cyclone of the post-monsoon season 2024. The storm does not have long sea travel and therefore, may not intensify beyond severe cyclonic storm. Though, the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal remains vulnerable to the strike of the storm, but state of Odisha is at a bigger risk for the landfall. As such, the state has a long coastline, oriented northeast-southwest and therefore exposed to more storms, than West Bengal. The state of West Bengal has a shorter coastline and that too, is oriented east-west, and so, is more prone to strike of recurving storms. However, exceptions are always there, like super cyclonic storm Amphan, which made a direct hit, on 20th May 2020 at Bakkhali.
Storm Dana will be packed with winds in excess of 100km/h, gusting to 120 km/h, at the time of landfall. The storm can uproot the trees, bring down the poles and transmission lines, blow the rooftops and collapse the weak structures. The closure of schools has already been ordered and over 150 trains have been suspended. The rail, road and air traffic are likely to be hit, simultaneously. Utmost caution needs to be exercised to minimize loss and damage to the life and assets. It is always advisable to shift away from the coastline and move to safe shelters, well before the calamity strikes. Inclement weather conditions will start anytime soon, along the coastline, more for Odisha than West Bengal. The storm may zero in on, between Paradip and Balasore, during the late night of the 24th or the wee hours of the 25th of October. The best of the preparations are needed to meet any eventuality.
