Under the influence of persisting cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea, a low-pressure area has formed over the East-Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining North Andaman Sea today morning. The investment area is centred around 15°N and 92°E, about 400km north of Port Blair. Looks like, the system has already become a well-marked low-pressure area and will further intensify to a depression, by late tonight or early morning tomorrow. The system will move west-northwest and quickly strengthen to a deep depression later in the evening/ early night. This will go on to become a cyclonic storm in the wee hours of Wednesday, 23rd October 2024.
This will be the first storm of post-monsoon season in the Indian Seas. The storm will have limited sea travel from northern parts of east-central BoB to northwest BoB, next to the West Bengal/ North Odisha coast. Though, the heat potential over the area of interest is in excess of 100 KJ/CM’2 but the bounded sea travel may not allow it to gain extreme severity. Still, the cyclonic storm, irrespective of its grade, is to be treated with utmost caution.
The storm will have a duration of, not exceeding 48 hours as a cyclone over the North Bay of Bengal. It will be prudent to wait for some more time to pinpoint its landfall. However, the coastline from North Odisha to West Bengal-Bangladesh looks more vulnerable and needs to be in a state of preparedness at short notice. These storms are known for changing the track, timelines and intensity, abruptly. More so, its travel is through a very restricted area, from the North Arakan Coast to the West Bengal-Odisha border and therefore, remains susceptible.
Sea conditions will be very rough, right from the word go and worsen further by tonight/tomorrow morning. Strong winds will start lashing the coastline of Odisha/ West Bengal from tomorrow evening onwards. Rain intensity will pick up, starting with light/moderate tomorrow night and turning heavy to very heavy, a day later on 23rd October. West Bengal and Bangladesh are likely to face the brunt of the storm and the flanks may escape the extreme fury. A more precise and credible forecast will be available after another 24 hours or so.
