While Maharashtra legislature's monsoon session is likely to be stormy, the actual monsoon might not be that strong. After Southwest Monsoon reached Kerala, Telangana and Northeast India, weathermen and agriculturists across the country now have their eyes on monsoon in the state of Maharashtra. And according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, barring coastal Maharashtra, Monsoon this year is going to be below normal in all other sub divisions, namely: Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra.
Earlier in April Skymet had released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September due to an El Nino year. The foreshadow talked about a possible weakness in monsoon in majority subdivisions in Northwest India (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana) and West-Central India (East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharshtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana) during the whole season.
Further, the date for the onset of Monsoon in Mumbai was predicted to be 7th - 8th June (with an error margin of ± 4%). And so far it looks like Southwest Monsoon will hit Mumbai around the same date. Considering the presence of an El Nino and bizarre weather conditions, we shouldn't rely entirely on copy book onset dates of Monsoon in India, reiterate our weathermen. The official Indian Meteorology Division date for the onset of monsoon over Mumbai is 10th June.
Understanding distribution of rainfall over Maharashtra from June to September:
Meteorologically, Maharashtra is divided into four divisions, which are Konkon and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.
Parts of coastal Maharashtra such as Mumbai and Ratnagiri fall in Konkon and Goa. Madhya Maharashtra covers Pune, Nashik, Kolapur and Solapur. Marathwada includes Aurangabad, Nanded, Beed and Parbhani. Vidarbha comprises of Akola, Chandrapur, Nagpur and Wardha
Weather records show a stark contrast in the rainfall figures between the four sub-divisions from the period of June to September. While the Konkon & Goa division gets a whopping 2800 mm of rain on an average, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada receive 700 mm and 704 mm of rain respectively. Vidarbha on the other hand gets the second highest rainfall of about 980 mm.
Between these four months, June and September are classified into months of little rain, while July and August are put under the category of the rainiest months. Konkon & Goa receives 1068 mm of rain out of the total 2800 mm received from July to August. Marathwada and Vidarbha receive 200 and 300 mm of rainfall respectively. Madhya Maharashtra receives the lowest rainfall of just about 190 mm in the rainiest months of July and August.
The reason for this variation among these sub-divisions is simple. Konkan & Goa lies in the uphill side of Western Ghats, therefore facing the maximum brunt of the monsoon air mass. Moisture from the Arabian Sea further feeds moisture to this region. But Pune and Solapur in Madhya Maharashtra, lying in the leeward side of the Western Ghats observe little rainfall when it's pouring in the capital city Mumbai. And since Vidarbha stands first in the firing line of the weather systems from the Bay of Bengal, rainfall amounts remain higher than that in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada.
Southwest monsoon, the lifeline of Indian agriculture, is vital as almost 55 percent of the total arable land in the country is rainfed. Maharashtra is an aggro sensitive state which has already faced the wrath of weird weather since the start of the year. Frequent hailstorms in Maharashtra in the last four months caused irreparable damage to fruit crops in the state, with Nashik alone suffering a loss of over Rs 20,000 crore.
“Maharashtra already observes a large variability in the weather patterns and an El Nino will put it at further risk this monsoon season”, says AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma.
