The fourth Cyclone “Maha” in the Arabian Sea has further intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclone at 0530 IST today. It is still travelling in favourable sea conditions where temperatures are around 29 degrees Celsius and vertical wind shear is low between 5-10 knots. The system has strengthened further as it has become more compact. Also, the eye of the storm is now clearly defined.
It is likely to turn in a northerly direction and thereafter recurve in east-northeast direction by tomorrow morning. After recurving, it will start travelling in relatively unfavourable sea conditions as the vertical wind shear will also start increasing and sea surface temperature will also decrease. Also, the dry westerlies northwesterlies will start penetrating and will cut off the moisture feed from the sea. Due to this, Cyclone Maha will weaken on its way to the Gujarat coast. The strong westerly winds will further weaken and will reach the Gujarat coast as either a Severe Cyclone or Cyclone. The system is likely to make a landfall between Diu and Porbandar around November 7 and at that time the wind speed will be around 80-90 kmph gusting 100 kmph. The gusty winds are likely to cause tree damage as well as power outages.
Under the influence of Cyclone Maha, heavy localised downpours and gusty winds are forecast in Gujarat from Wednesday onwards. The storm could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places across Gujarat on Wednesday and Thursday. As the system will near, the sea conditions will become very rough. Hence, the fishermen are strictly advised not to remain in the vicinity of the sea and the wave height is likely to be somewhere close to 10-15 feet high. Boaters should heed local warnings.
Cyclone Maha formed over the Arabian Sea off the southern coast of India on Wednesday last week. As Kyarr persisted over the central Arabian Sea last week, the formation of Maha marked the first instance of two cyclones co-occurring in the Arabian Sea in the recorded history.
On Sunday, India's Coast Guard deployed ships and aircraft along the coast of northwest India to warn boaters to return to the nearest port.
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