Northeast monsoon had an uptick over few selective areas for the last couple of days. It may still remain active over Kerala and extreme southern parts of Peninsula for two more days, before withering over most parts for rest of the week. Courtesy, few weather systems in the surrounding areas of Peninsular India, albeit mild, sporadic monsoon showers remain a regular feature for parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. A break in this sequence is quite likely.
A low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region is now reduced to a cyclonic circulation. Also, the weather system will drift westward, away from our region and therefore lose its influence. An east -west oriented trough is marked over Comorin and Maldives region in the proximity of equatorial belt. Under the influence of these two systems, scattered rain and thundershowers are likely over Kerala. Also, the southern parts of Tamil Nadu like Kanyakumari, Tondi and Pamban are likely to have intermittent monsoon showers for the next couple of days.
Out of the five meteorological sub divisions of northeast monsoon, only Kerala and Tamil Nadu are placed in the comfort zone, with normal rainfall. The other three sub divisions have significant shortfall. All these five sub divisions are likely to have literally dry weather conditions on 13th & 14thDec. Following a fresh development of a broad cyclonic circulation, with an east-west oriented trough, over Comorin and Maldives area, monsoon rains will revisit but limiting to the same parts, once again between 15th and 16thDecember.
With northeast monsoon activity getting confined to select pockets of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, that too, for limited duration, rainfall will not be adequate. On the other hand, rainfall deficit may increase further for Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South interior Karnataka. No major weather system is likely to come up, at least within next 10 days, to compensate the seasonal shortfall.