Fresh low pressure area is likely to form soon over Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB). Earlier low pressure area has travelled up to South Rajasthan and North Gujarat region. With yet another low pressure coming up over BoB, monsoon activity zone will shift from the western sector to the eastern one, very soon. The remnant cyclonic circulation of previous low pressure, currently lying over South Rajasthan and Kutch region will weaken and cross over to South Pakistan in the next 48hr.
A well marked cyclonic circulation is placed over northwest BoB, off Odisha and West Bengal coast. Under its influence, a low pressure area will form over the same region in the next 24hours. The weather system will move over land in the subsequent 24hours. Active monsoon conditions at many places and vigorous at few of them are likely over the next 4-5days.
To start with, the forward section and southwestern sector of the broad cyclonic circulation will trigger fairly widespread rain and thundershower activity over Odisha, West Bengal and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 19thSeptember. Once the low pressure area comes up on 20thSeptember and moves westward, the weather activity will extend up to Chhattisgarh as well. From 22nd September onward, the cyclonic feature may shift more to the north towards Bihar, North Jharkhand and East Uttar Pradesh.
State of Bihar and more so the foothills are likely to have extended wet spell between 22nd and 24thSeptember. Heavy rains are likely at many places during this period. The eastern states of West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand have experienced perpetual deficit rainfall, this monsoon season. Odisha and Chhattisgarh also are below normal by about 10% rainfall. The likely wet spell will cover the rainfall deficit of Odisha and Chhattisgarh. The other three states, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal will have moderate to heavy rainfall and the deficit margins will shrink significantly.
