A broad cyclonic circulation is marked over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), extending up to mid-tropospheric levels. Low pressure will initially move northeast, away from the coastline, and intensify to depression first and possibly deep depression, later on, Friday, 24th May. As a deep depression over central BoB, the system will move towards coastline of Myanmar and Bangladesh.
The formation of the system and its further movement is little abnormal and rather unusual. Majority of pre-monsoon systems originate over the Andaman Sea and Southeast BoB. Sometimes, they even enter BoB from Thailand and Myanmar, as remnants of strong systems. Originating over Tamil Nadu and Southwest BoB is almost an alien territory for the pre-monsoon disturbances over BoB. Numerical models are prognosticating track, timelines and intensity, which is rather dubious to comprehend. Results are diverse and nearly outliers, for this time of the year. There is plenty of noise in the environmental conditions and the important parameters may stabilize after the formation of low pressure area or depression.
The existing conditions indicate the northeastward movement of the system, taking it closer to Arakan coast of Myanmar. On intensification to a deep depression or possibly a weak storm, over northeast BoB, it may move dangerously close to Myanmar/ Bangladesh border. Some of the models are predicting the system to come in the close proximity of Gangetic West Bengal, next to the Bangladesh coastline. On the formation of a low-pressure area, the weather system needs to be kept under close watch for further likely ramifications. No adverse weather conditions are likely for the Indian coast, during its travel over sea, between the 22nd and 25th of May 2024.