A low pressure area will be forming over the Northeast Bay of Bengal (Bay of Bengal) and adjoining coastal parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar on 03rd August. This weather system will become well marked and move over to the head Bay of Bengal on 4th August. It also stands a chance to intensify into a monsoon depression, the first of this season in the Bay of Bengal. However, the proximity of the coast may restrict its intensification, as the second monsoon low of this season in the Bay of Bengal is showing signs of quickly moving overland on 5th August itself.
This weather system is presently marked as a tropical cyclone in the West Pacific, south of Hainan, and moving west-northwest to cross the Vietnam coast shortly. The system will thereafter weaken to depression while over Laos and adjoining Thailand. The depression will weaken further to a well marked low pressure area and move across Myanmar to finally enter the Bay of Bengal.
During the monsoon months from June to September, 2-3 low pressure area or depression form in each of these months in the Bay of Bengal. However, this season, only one low pressure area has formed, and the rest of the systems appeared as cyclonic circulations, and that too mostly in situ formation. The core monsoon month of August is known for 'Break' in monsoon and prolonged break, if any, reduces the frequency of these weather systems.
This low/depression will be moving across Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. Monsoon is likely to become vigorous over these parts and heavy to very heavy rains are likely between 04th and 07th August. These incessant rains may cause localized flooding in some areas. The rain deprived pocket of North Gujarat (Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Patan Deesa, Idar, Mehsana, and Palanpur) is likely to get intense rains between 05th and 07th August. This system is likely to be followed by another one in quick succession.
