A cyclonic circulation, earlier over Strait Of Malacca, has entered Bay of Bengal (BoB ). Under its influence, feeble low pressure area has formed over Southeast BoB and adjoining equatorial region. Unlike cyclone Mandous, the previous system originating over same area, this low pressure is not expected to pick up further. Rather, marginal environmental conditions may switch it back to mere cyclonic circulation over equatorial region of South Central BoB.
Weather systems moving across the equatorial belt, which fail to gain latitude, do not intensify due to lack of Coriolis factor. Wind field of the current system suggest its centre close to 5deg North and so does not gather enough support for further consolidation. However, the associated cyclonic circulation is likely to move over extreme southern parts of Central BoB and later position over Southwest BoB, off Sri Lanka coast.
An easterly wave, moving across the southern parts of BoB, is likely to catch up with the cyclonic circulation over Southwest BoB .
Super imposition of easterly wave with the pre existing circulation will trigger the northeast monsoon activity over South Peninsula, commencing 18th Dec. Spread and intensity will increase on 19th and 20th Dec, more aggressively for state of Tamil Nadu. Moderate to light rain and thundershowers will stay across all the 5 subdivisions of northeast monsoon between 19th and 23rd Dec. Northeasterlies stream appear to be flattening thereafter and the weather conditions are expected to improve around Christmas.
