Under the influence of a Cyclonic Circulation over the region, a low-pressure area is likely to form anytime soon over the South Andaman Sea and neighbourhood. The massive convective cloud configuration over that area, grown disproportionately over the past 12 hours, suggests quick percolation of a low- pressure area. A well-defined close low, supported by broad and organized cyclonic circulation is likely, within the next about 12 hours. Favourable sea conditions will strengthen the system further to a depression in the subsequent 24 hours.
The periphery of the depression will reach Sri Lankan east coast on 24th Nov itself. The system will move west-northwest and gain latitude, a favourable sign for further intensification. The monsoon depression is likely to become a tropical storm over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, in the close proximity of the northeastern coast of Sri Lanka and relatively farther from the Tamil Nadu coastline.
The proximity of land does not augur well for deepening and sharpening of the storms. To sustain its strength, the system has to battle against the frictional forces of terrain and dry air intrusion on account of entrainment. The heat potential of the storm, drawn from the sea surface needs to maintain an edge and score over the drag of these restraining factors.
The weather conditions at the start of the next week, on the 25th and 26th of Nov, will be crucial for both Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu. The model accuracy drops after 4-5 days and more so, for the equatorial region, where the storm is likely to sail before approaching the coastline. A period of another 24 hours of observation will give a better clue on the likely track and timelines of the weather system. By this time, the system will become a low-pressure area, offering understandable features to predict its path and intensity.
