A fresh low pressure area has formed over Northwest and adjoining West Central Bay of Bengal. Associated cyclonic circulation is extending up to mid tropospheric levels with a southward tilt with height. It is likely to become well marked and cross South Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh in the next 24 hours.
This is the first low pressure area of September which has formed in quick succession trailing the last system towards end of July. Monsoon activity is expected to revive and become vigorous over the eastern and central parts lasting for nearly one week or even more.
The swathe of the system will run across Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The peripherals of low pressure area will influence weather conditions of Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Weather activity over northeast India will be mild and shallow for the next 7days.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and East Rajasthan. Moderate to heavy showers are likely over Delhi, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.
This will be a slow moving weather system and likely to stagnate over West Madhya Pradesh and neighborhood between 09th and 13th Sep. Such a scenario will drag the monsoon trough which is likely to run south of its normal position for the next few days.
Weather activity will also shift accordingly covering eastern, central and western parts of the country in a sequential manner between 06th and 13th September. Confluence zone forming ahead of its center will lash parts of Gujarat with heavy to very heavy rains between 08th and 10th September.
Monsoon systems are little more frequent during September as compared to July and August. However, these are not as intense and powerful as the ones during core months of July and August. These systems generally form over the central parts of the Bay of Bengal and move across central and western parts.
The spread of weather activity at this time of the season is larger than during the middle months of monsoon. Slowly and gradually, the weather system will shrink their reach and mostly shy away from crashing in to West Rajasthan first and then East Rajasthan as well, in the later half of the month.
Seasonal rainfall deficiency is stuck at 9-10% since 23rd August. There is huge shortfall of 65 mm so far, as the season has registered 679.6 mm rainfall against the normal of 744.7 mm. Active monsoon week is expected to pull the struggling monsoon from the crutches of scary drought conditions in some parts of the country.