The Northeast Monsoon season gets manifested by formation of cyclonic systems in the southern latitudes of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. At present, a low pressure area has formed in the southwest Bay of Bengal and is currently giving heavy rain over Sri Lanka.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system is expected to give good rain over Tamil Nadu on November 27 and heavy rain on November 28. Post that, the system will move towards Kerala, Lakshadweep and Comorin region by November 29 but with reduced intensity.
Thereafter, the system will keep moving in the open waters of the Arabian Sea. It is during this time, when the system is expected to pick up strength and turn into a well-marked low pressure area and further intensify into a depression.
The spell of good rain in South India is expected to make up for rain deficiency in several pockets. The average rainfall for Chennai in November is 407 mm, but the city has received only 170 mm of rain so far. The fresh spell of rain will push up the rainfall figure in the city.
According to Skymet, the system is expected to continue moving in west-northwest direction towards the coast of Somalia, Yemen and Oman. However, there are fair chances that the system might shift a little north and move towards Maharashtra and Gujarat.
If this happens, the system will give rain over coastal parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra sometime around mid of next week.