The first low pressure area of July and second of this season had formed over Bay of Bengal (BoB) on July 11. Initially, a cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, it organised further and became a low pressure area over Northwest Bay of Bengal, off North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coast.
The system has maintained its strength and almost remained stationary, now lying over Bay of Bengal adjoining the East Coast. This low pressure will intensify further to become well marked shortly.
Monsoon activity has remained subdued for the last about 20 days. Daily rainfall has consistently been below the average since June 21. Earlier good rainfall over east and central parts of the country exceeded the average to go in excess over many sub divisions. Formation of 1st low pressure area of this season on 11th June and its subsequent movement across central and eastern parts resulted excess rainfall by 41% till 20th June.
However, monsoon slipped in to weak mode thereafter as monsoon trough shifted along foothills of East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These mild conditions prevailed for rest of the days in June and extended till 10thJuly. The surplus of June got consumed and later slided towards deficiency. The extended poor spell has led to a seasonal shortfall of 7% from 01June till 10th July. Core monsoon month of July by itself is down by deficiency of 40% rainfall.
Large deficiency of July is surely a matter of concern for all the sectors including agriculture. But formation of fresh low pressure area, just at the right time, is promising hefty rains over most parts of the country. Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat is heading for intense and heavy rains. Mumbai rains with heavy to very heavy spell of flooding rains is on the cards during next week. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will have a bigger share during first half of the week Heavy rains will travel later to cover Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab.
Monsoon will advance to reach the last posts in West Rajasthan shortly. Localized floods remains a possibility during the week. Monsoon rainfall deficiency incurred so far will get covered to some extent. Eastern parts of the country covering Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal will escape the monsoon fury till 16thJuly.
