Under the influence of persisting cyclonic circulation, a low-pressure area formed yesterday, over southwest and adjoining west- central Bay of Bengal (BoB). The invest area now lies, centred around 13.7°N and 86.9°E, today morning. The weather system will move northeastward and become a depression in the net 24 hours. It is likely to move further northeast to intensify as a deep depression, over northeast and adjoining northwest BoB.
By and large, the consensus is building up amongst numerical models, towards the formation of the first tropical storm of pre-monsoon season. Environmental conditions are favourable over the sea. Sea surface temperature of about 30°C and weak vertical wind shear are quite conducive for its strengthening. However, there is a fair amount of diversification about the track and timelines. It is quite probable, that the cyclone may head for the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, south of Cox’s Bazar. Yet, the possibility of system coming dangerously close to the West Bengal – Odisha coast can not be ruled out.
The storm, as and when it forms, will be named ‘REMAL’ as suggested by the member country Oman. For the time being, there is no significant impact likely for the Indian coast, in the next 48 hours. There will be more clarity on the track, intensity and timelines of the system in the next 24 hours. Keeping in mind, the truant nature of these storms, defying norms on more than one occasion, a state of readiness is envisaged for the coastal states of West Bengal and Odisha.