Monsoon activity has been driven largely by the seasonal monsoon trough for the last about one week. The more forceful triggers from Bay of Bengal remained subdued. Now, there is strong likelihood of monsoon low pressure area developing over the Bay of Bengal, very soon. The daily monsoon rainfall, which has dipped much below the daily normal for the last few days will catch up again. The reduction of monsoon spread has led to the seasonal rainfall of 102% of LPA dropping to zero-zero and may further dip to -1% today. It is likely to make up for the loss and may go above the threshold mark, sometime next week.
As precursor to the low pressure area, a deep trough is likely to form off Odisha coast on 12thJuly. This will become marked in to a circulation on 13thJuly. Favourable conditions will increase the chances of first low pressure area of July emerging anytime between 14-15 July, over northwest Bay of Bengal. Subsequently, the weather system will track along the central parts of the country to carry the monsoon stream over the core area of monsoon rainfed zone. The rainfall belt will travel along Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
While over Madhya Pradesh, the westerly stream from the Arabian Sea will also gather pace to accentuate monsoon activity over land locked sub-divisions of Maharashtra, Konkan, Gujrat and some parts of Rajasthan. Mumbai and South Gujarat will have the risk of getting a deluge, sometime around mid-week next. As an extension to the monsoon activity, the northern parts of the country comprising Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana may also find revival of monsoon during second half of next week.
