A cyclonic circulation is marked over southern parts of Bangladesh and the neighbourhood, with a trough extending southward. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over North Bay of Bengal (BoB), in the next 24 hours. This weather system is likely to move over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand for the subsequent 3 days, between the 05th and 07th of October. Active monsoon conditions are likely over these states, during this period.
The cyclonic circulation will trigger fairly widespread rain and thundershowers over the entire Northeast India, today and tomorrow. More intense activity is likely today and on a lesser note tomorrow. In view of this low-pressure area coming up over BoB, the weather activity will ease out over northeastern parts from 05th October. The focus will largely shift to Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand from 04th Oct onwards and linger on for the subsequent 3-4 days. The weather activity may not be extreme, but good enough to keep the monsoon active. The peripheral activity of the system will even reach parts of Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh.
Close on the heels of this system, another cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Southwest BoB, off South Andhra Pradesh and North Tamil Nadu coast, sometime around 07th /08th October 2024. As this feature moves inland and also shifts slightly northward, the pre-existing system over eastern states is likely to merge with this circulation. Courtesy, the merger of the two systems, the monsoon will become active over the South Peninsula and extend to cover parts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Since the model accuracy lowers after about 5 days, the forecast may need some revision, in case of any significant variation.
Image Courtesy: Zee Business
