A cyclonic circulation is marked over the Northwest Bay of Bengal (BoB), extending up to mid-levels of the atmosphere. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over BoB, off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast by tomorrow. The weather system will keep meandering over the sea, with gradual northward shift, along the coastline. It is likely to reach North BoB and the ‘Head Bay’ region on 08th September. The system will keep bracing the coastline of Gangetic West Bengal and Bangladesh till the 10th/11th of September and move inland, thereafter only. It means the low pressure will spend nearly 5 days over the sea, in the proximity of the eastern coastline. It is a bit unusual but stands to reason due to developments beyond the geographical boundary of India.
There is a strong tropical storm ‘Yagi’ in the South China Sea. The storm had earlier crossed the Philippines on 02nd September and reemerged in the Philippines Sea. Presently, it is located deep in the ocean over the South China Sea, well west of North Philippines, as a category-II equivalent hurricane. It is expected to become a super typhoon ‘YAGI’ In the next 48 hours. The dynamics of the weather system over BoB are closely linked with the positioning of Yagi in the West Pacific Ocean.
Typhoon Yagi is likely to make multiple landfalls, even after the one over the Philippines. The typhoon is moving west-northwest and heading for Hainan. After making this landfall, estimated on 07th September, the storm will enter the Gulf of Tongking. Moving westward, the powerful cyclone of Cat-II hurricane equivalent, is likely to smash North Vietnam, making the third landfall. The typhoon will weaken over land and the remnants are likely to travel across Laos and Myanmar. If all goes well, the leftover of this storm may enter the BoB, to join up with the pre-existing low-pressure area. The week-long prediction will be reviewed and subject to change if need be.
The proximity of low pressure over BoB, to the coastline of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will trigger monsoon showers off and along the coast between 04th and 10th September. Moderate rainfall is expected at many places over Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal during this period. Monsoon showers will even cover interior parts covering Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. Peripheral activity will also extend to Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh. Since the model accuracy goes low after the lead time of about 5 days, a fresh call will be taken after 48 hours, to validate or review the forecast.
Image Courtesy: World Atlas
