Monsoon low pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal (BoB), very soon. The weakest phase of the southwest monsoon lingering for over one week for most parts of the country will find a respite, shortly. Courtesy, likely weather system in the BoB, decent rains will strike eastern and central parts of the country, commencing anytime soon. However, unlike the monsoon systems which invariably penetrate deep up to the western and northern parts of the country, the spread this time may remain limited and may not provide much needed relief for the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and some parts of Uttar Pradesh & Madhya Pradesh.
Monsoon rains totally collapsed in August. The core monsoon month closed with rainfall figure of 162.7mm against the normal of 254.9mm , amounting to deficiency of 36%, an all time record for the last 123 years. The seasonal rainfall till 31August also touched the lowest of the last 5 years with an overall shortfall of 10%, nearly breaching the ‘deficit’ mark. September holds the key to have a close finish for the season at ‘below normal’ or scare of ‘drought’.
A low pressure area is likely to form over north BoB on 04thSeptember. Currently, a cyclonic circulation is marked over northeast BoB and adjoining coastal parts. It is likely to get more organized and also shift over top end of BoB, with a southwestward tilt up to the medium levels. Under its influence, low pressure is likely to form. This weather system will meander over the same region till 07-08 September. Low pressure may move inland across coastal Odisha on 08th-09th September and further shift over parts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Marathwada.
Weather activity will find its spread on either side of the track of this low pressure. Convergence zone of the system will move far ahead of the central region to reach central and some southern parts of the country. Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely between 03rd and 10thSeptember over Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, in a staggered manner. Southern peninsula is also expected to have moderate showers during this period. Heavy rains will be triggered over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Goa and interiors of Tamil Nadu. Rainfall over Northeast India will reduce and light to moderate showers are likely between 03rd and 10thSeptember.
Seasonal rainfall deficiency has mounted to -10%. Month of June was -10%, July +13% and August -36%. Intra seasonal variation of monsoon between active and dull spells is very common. However, scanty rains of August have raised an alarm with a possibility of season 2023 may drift towards ‘deficient’ monsoon. There is a hope, with the upcoming low pressure area, reducing the deficit margins of eastern states and some central parts. Even, a normal September can averse the scare of drought and the season can finish with a little better grade of ‘below normal’.