As predicted earlier, the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is nearly confirmed. As precursor to this system, a cyclonic circulation is likely over East-Central BoB and North Andaman Sea in the next 36-48 hrs. This system is entering the Andaman Sea from Myanmar/Thialand region, travelling across the Gulf of Martaban and Arakan Coast. The cyclonic circulation is likely to consolidate further and move northwest over the central parts of BoB. Quite likely, a low pressure will emerge over that region on 22nd October, in the early hours.
Notwithstanding the low accuracy of weather models after a period of 4-5 days, there are enough signs available for further intensification of this system. The low-pressure will move northwest to central parts of BoB and intensify to a depression on 23rd October. As it appears, the weather system may be heading for the coastline of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. In that case, only limited sea travel will be available with the depression for further intensification. The truncated stretch may only allow it to pick up the initial category of storm and therefore unlikely to become too harsh to strike the coastline.
Regardless of the intensity of cyclone, a storm is to be read like a storm, without lowering the guards. Though, the confirmation of a storm will take a little more time, but the notice available for the preparation is that much longer. If it happens, this will be the maiden storm of this post-monsoon season in the BoB. Earlier, on two recent occasions, the weather systems could intensify, only to a depression stage, one each, on either side of the coastline. These storms are known to play truant and the entire coastline from Andhra Pradesh-Odisha-West Bengal- Bangladesh and Myanmar bear the risk of cyclone strike. This system will be tracked closely and the update will be shared on a regular basis.
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